I wrote this post for Reinhart's blog a month or two ago, and it took him a while to post it.
EDIT: New link here - http://chaosengineering.tumblr.com/post/41793954221/the-element-of-risk-part-4-mediaprophet
I forgot how much I developed that idea!
Go read about risk and game design.
See how D&D makes PCs 99% likely to win a fight and see how that's OK. And see how I would explain that in the DMG if I were its author!